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– https://t.co/ILlW9uhEWi
Title: "What if automating AI R&D triggers an intelligence explosion?"
Policy paper by more than 20 experts calls for tracking AI’s role in AI researchMachine translation
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A policy paper by more than 20 experts, including Geoffrey Hinton and Yoshua Bengio, asks governments to track how much AI research is already done by AI. The material also presents a conditional estimate: if AI reaches expert level and runtime costs remain comparable, one frontier developer’s current compute could run an AI workforce equivalent to millions of top researchers at once. It does not say that scale has been achieved.
A policy paper, written by more than 20 experts including Geoffrey Hinton and Yoshua Bengio, that asks governments to start tracking how much of AI research is already being done by AI.
AI has jumped from seconds-long tasks in 2023 to tasks that take human experts days.
If runtime costs stayed comparable, the compute 1 frontier developer has today could run an AI workforce equal to millions of top researchers.
OpenAI alone has enough inference compute (i.e., runtime compute) to generate on the order of 10^13 tokens per day.
If AI reached expert level and runtime costs stayed comparable, the compute 1 frontier developer has today (2026) could run an AI workforce equal to millions of top researchers working at once, against the few thousand frontier labs employ in 2026.
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