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– https://t.co/ILlW9uhEWi
Title: "What if automating AI R&D triggers an intelligence explosion?"
20余名专家撰写政策论文，呼吁政府追踪AI参与研究的程度
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一篇由包括Geoffrey Hinton和Yoshua Bengio在内的20余名专家撰写的政策论文，呼吁政府开始追踪AI研究中有多少工作已由AI完成。材料还提出一个附带条件的推算：若AI达到专家水平且运行成本保持相近，一家前沿开发商现有的算力可同时运行相当于数百万名顶尖研究人员的AI系统；这不是已实现的规模。
A policy paper, written by more than 20 experts including Geoffrey Hinton and Yoshua Bengio, that asks governments to start tracking how much of AI research is already being done by AI.
AI has jumped from seconds-long tasks in 2023 to tasks that take human experts days.
If runtime costs stayed comparable, the compute 1 frontier developer has today could run an AI workforce equal to millions of top researchers.
OpenAI alone has enough inference compute (i.e., runtime compute) to generate on the order of 10^13 tokens per day.
If AI reached expert level and runtime costs stayed comparable, the compute 1 frontier developer has today (2026) could run an AI workforce equal to millions of top researchers working at once, against the few thousand frontier labs employ in 2026.
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